99%

Direct sellers are once again the target of unfounded accusations by critics and journalists who either don’t understand the direct selling business model or simply choose to ignore the facts.

The headline of MarketWatch’s recent “10 things direct-sales marketers won’t say” column holds more truth than the author (or the copywriter who wrote the headline) probably intended. The reason direct sellers won’t say these 10 things is because they aren’t true – at least not in the cloak and dagger double entendre way that was intended for this article.

Author Kelli Grant spent a great deal of time on the phone with me going over in detail each one of these tired accusations that are bantered about by industry critics with reckless disregard for the truth, so I had some level of hope that the story would be fair and balanced after she learned of the facts the critics conveniently tend to leave out. But not surprisingly even perfectly reasonable activities (like having to work to earn money!) were portrayed as negatives, with key information that clearly illustrates why the critics’ arguments hold no water as an “oh by the way” at the end of each segment.

For example, a professor of marketing at Georgetown (who for all I know has no expertise in direct selling at all) does some quick math (like the critics do) and advises people to divide a company’s revenue by the number of salespeople. That could sound reasonable, but what it doesn’t take into account is the fact that a significant percentage of direct sellers join companies to buy the product at a discount and never try to sell to others or recruit anyone. They aren’t eligible to earn commissions but yet this calculation throws them into the mix, artificially lowering the “average” per consultant. The critics leave out that little glitch in their math. In fact, there are plenty of people who earn nothing – but for most it’s because they don’t even try to sell or recruit! The best advice for anyone considering direct selling is to assess how much time you plan to spend on your direct selling business, identify your income goals and talk to enough people to determine if your expectations are reasonable. No simple math computation will answer those questions for you.

Then there’s the assertion that “this stuff might not sell in stores.” In fact, the products best suited for direct sales are those that can benefit from demonstration so critics who make this assertion might be right – but what’s wrong that? There are plenty of products that don’t sell well on store shelves so smart marketers take them directly to the customers and show them the features and benefits. And don’t forget assertions about the price of direct selling products. The author cites one product that sells for $31 through a direct selling company and a “nearly identical” model for $20 at a discount store. While it’s unclear what “nearly identical” means, anyone who has ever been in a retail store in a free-market economy knows that one can find a wide range in price levels of just about any product. Products that aren’t priced competitively won’t sell – regardless of the sales method.

While each of the “10 things” cited provides an alarming “buyer beware” beginning before reluctantly revealing the truth at the end, one of my favorite examples was from a woman who recalled an experience she had 30 years (yes, that’s three decades) ago. It struck me because most of the critics who malign direct selling haven’t updated their facts for just about that long. Today more than 16 million Americans participate in direct selling for a wide variety of reasons. Some support their families with their income, some pay the cable bill and some buy the products at a discount. It’s just a shame that news outlets like Marketwatch find the negative spin to be preferable to describing the millions of people who have found success in direct selling, but then again, that’s one of the “things they won’t say.”

As baseball great Yogi Berra once said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

This week I’ve seen several blog posts repeating the tired assertion that 99% of direct sellers lose money. One even referred to the myth as a “cold hard fact.”
As I’ve pointed out previously on this blog, more than half of direct sellers report that their net income from direct selling, after taxes and expenses, is positive. In addition, positive net income is reported by nearly half of new direct sellers – those representing their current company for less than a year.
I’m sure this post will encourage the same critics who spread the 99% myth to respond to this message with the same information, that quotes the same circle of people, referencing the same “research” again and again. You can go back and review all of those previous discussions on earlier posts on this blog if that information is of interest to you. I won’t repeat it all here.
Anyway, my purpose with this post is not to spend more time debunking the 99% myth with dueling facts and figures. We’ve done that already. More important are the stories of actual people, average Americans like those profiled in a few recent media stories I’ve linked to below, who personify the success direct selling can provide – whether success is $200 a month or much more. Take a look at these examples:

Direct selling has carved out substantial niche

Direct sales businesses boom as economy tightens

Direct sellers strike balance, maybe gold

There are a couple of key points from these stories worth mentioning.

Not everyone in direct selling earns a six figure income, but then, not everyone is looking to earn a six-figure income. Many of the people profiled are seeking a little extra income in their spare time and they’re obtaining it via direct selling. As I am proud to point out, the median income for a direct sellers is about $2,400. The average income is actually significantly higher, but statistically speaking, the $2,400 number is far more accurate – that’s based on the millions of people just looking for (and achieving) supplemental income.

One of the other theories posited by direct selling critics is that if you’re not already in the business, it’s too late and the market is saturated. Not true. As the stories above demonstrate, successful direct sellers are entering the business all the time.

As I’ve said numerous times on this blog – direct selling is not for everyone, and just as with anything in life, there are people who will try it and not find the level of success they were hoping for. Anyone considering direct selling should clearly define their personal goals and thoroughly research both the industry and the specific company they are considering. Hopefully this Web site will assist in those efforts.

So, keep in mind that despite the stories in the articles above, success in direct selling is not guaranteed. But contrary to what our critics would have you believe, neither is failure.

A bit of delay on posting this as I was on my way to Phoenix (and early warning that comments submitted over the next week could be delayed as well), but the following comment was submitted Wednesday in response to my post debunking the 99.9% myth. While I could have easily discarded it based on the personal attacks the author makes toward me, I ultimately decided that the bulk of the post does address the very issues we have been discussing here. While the author and I obviously disagree on many points, being exposed to various viewpoints is an important part of being informed. My stance remains that given the facts, consumers are intelligent beings who can come to their own rational conclusions. As a result, I am more than happy to post dissenting opinions.

I chose to post this as a new entry because there are certainly many opportunities for discussion here, and I don’t think being buried in the comments of an old post would give site viewers enough opportunity to review and react to it. As such, it is posted in its entirety below. I will look forward to the reactions of others.

Just one final note before we get to the post itself. Thus far the visitors to this site have conducted themselves with respect to the opinions of others. The intent of this blog is to discuss the issues, and personal attacks have no place here. However, I am posting this message in its entirety because I hesitate to do ANY editing to posts – one would then always need to wonder if something had been left out. Since the bulk of the post does address relevant issues, I did not want to lose that input – no matter how far afield it may be from my viewpoint or that of DSA. That being said, in the future I will not post any comments from this author or any other that make personal attacks on people or their opinions, or simply restate the same information regardless of the topic at hand.

Message from Jon Taylor posted 10:28 pm ET 6/4/2008:

Amy – Is this the same Amy Robinson that used the web version of identity theft to register pyramidschemealert.com to divert honest people seeking the truth from finding the pyramidschemealert.org web site they were seeking? And the same DSA that blatantly lied in our Utah legislative committee hearings to get MLM exempted from prosecution as pyramid schemes? The same DSA that used blatant influence peddling to get MLM exempted from a Business Opportunity Rule that would have given consumers some protection from the worst business opportunity scams?

I don’t expect that you would dare post my response (below) to some of the above comments on your blog. It would only be honest and ethical to do so, since the statistics you challenge are my statistics. But I would be surprised if you were that open to honest feedback. Here are a few points for readers to consider:

1. The 89%, 84%, and 91% satisfaction rates for direct selling you cited above on “Happy Mothers Day” (and which have been cited in legislative hearings, etc.) are themselves extremely misleading, since they combine legitimate direct selling with pyramid or chain selling. MLM is not considered as a separate category, but is treated as core direct selling activity.

2. I worked my way through college selling World Book Encyclopedia while you were still in diapers. World Book, Fuller Brush, Tupperware, etc. were not endless chain selling operations, but legitimate direct sellers at that time. I have watched MLMs gradually take over the agenda of the DSA, which initially represented legitimate direct sellers. Now the DSA spends its resources twisting the truth to match the deceptions used to recruit hapless victims into the revolving door of recruits needed to fuel the insatiable appetites of TOPPs (top of the pyramid promoters), officers, and founders of MLMs that are its most profitable members.

3. Back to your statistics, only “active” participants in MLM are included in statistical population, not the 90% that are gone within 5 years in many of the programs we’ve studied. If you included only MLM and ALL who were enrolled in a 5-year period, you would get strikingly different statistical results. This is only fair, since some of the “successes” included in the studies have been with the company for ten or more years.

4. As far as the “99% myth,” you should read Bob Fitzpatrick’s “The Myth of ‘Income Opportunity’ in Multi-level Marketing.” (See www.falseprofits.com) He comes up with a loss rate of closer to 99% using the numbers published by the MLM companies themselves – assuming you subtract minimal expenses. My 99.9% figure comes from a more strict accounting and statistical standard – subtracting “pay to play” expenses (purchases required to qualify for commissions and advancement) and minimal operating expenses – which I established be carefully tracking expenses in a one-year test. It also includes ALL recruits within a reasonable time period – not just “active distributors,” etc. And since the vast majority of MLM recruits soon become EX-participants, they deserve to be represented.

5. Now to the tax studies. If you read my tax survey carefully, you would know that I acknowledged the problems of doing the survey from the outset. If anyone were to do a simple survey of tax professionals on the profitability of MLM participants using a standard survey questionniare, they would be unable to get the desired data – period. You should know that. This is confidential information. What happened to me was that accountants aware of my research were asking me why no one doing MLM was reporting any profits. So they gave me the opening for talking with others. I would simply ask “…  Shoot, I’m not going to write out pages to repeat the process that is reported on my site. Go to www.mlm-thetruth.com and click on the research link, and you will find it. My approach was the best I could do under the circumstances. And I stand by my 99.9% loss rate for the companies I have studied – not based on the tax survey, but on careful analysis of actual company data.

6. You should know that Bruce Craig, while working in the AG office in Wisconsin in the 70’s and 80’s, was able in a state action to obtain the tax returns of the top 1% of Amway distributors. Their average income was minus $900. So there was a precedent.

This feedback is surely too honest and straightforward for you to post, so I don’t expect anyone but you to see it. But I feel better having written it.

Amy Robinson, how can you sleep nights, knowing (as you must) the great harm the DSA and its member firms are doing world wide?

Jon M. Taylor, MBA, Ph.D., President, Consumer Awareness Institute and Advisor, Pyramid Scheme Alert

Amy’s response:

The author says he has the same goal as DSA – and that’s to make sure pyramid schemes are not able to operate in the marketplace. The problem is we don’t agree on the definition of a pyramid scheme. However, I find value in the exercise of finding common ground from which to start a discussion. Undoubtedly there is somewhere in the middle where we have some agreement, and both sides could probably benefit from an open and honest discussion of each other’s opinions. Certainly there are areas where we would have to agree to disagree, but I’m not sure the author would ever be able to accept that his views might be wrong.

Now, since I chose to proceed with posting the personal attacks, I will respond to them briefly. The online identity theft assertion has been used frequently by the author – and is absurd. Why the author has made this an issue personal to me, I’m not sure – it is only my name on the registration because one has to be there. But that detail aside, DSA does in fact own a domain similar to one used by the author and at one point we did have information posted there relevant to anti-pyramid scheme legislation being considered by Congress. However, at no point did we conceal our identity or masquerade as anyone else.

Assertions about DSA’s testimony with regard to anti-pyramid scheme legislation in Utah are equally as absurd – and in reality represent no more than a difference of opinion. Just because our view is different than the author’s doesn’t take away from the truth of what we are saying – we simply view the facts differently. This is further evidence that the author is unwilling or unable to entertain different points of view.

With regard to the Business Opportunity Rule, the FTC reviewed our feedback on the issue just as they reviewed the feedback from the author and others and decided the merits were on our side. If we had the influence the author suggests, wouldn’t we have used it to prevent the Rule from being proposed in the first place? We are confident in our position because we know we have the facts on our side and verifiable data to back it up.

Now to the specific, and more substantive, assertions made by the author:

Regarding the author’s specific comments on my previous posts, the numbers I quoted with regard to satisfaction are from our 2002 National Salesforce Survey, during which more than 1,800 direct sellers involved in both MLM and non-MLM compensation systems were polled by an independent research firm. While the interviewees were current direct sellers when selected at random from the salesforce, that group ultimately represents people who were just starting, well-established or in the process of quitting – for a variety of reasons. I don’t understand the suggestion to limit the pool of respondents to only companies using a multilevel marketing compensation plan – while most direct selling companies use MLM, some don’t and they should be represented proportionately. And why would we want to limit the time period to exclude those who have been active for a long period of time? Are the experiences of those people less relevant than newcomers, people who had only a short-term goal or decided direct selling was not for them? You can’t pick and choose your respondents to get the results you want, nor is it credible to conduct your own research and analysis, as the author did, when you have a clear and stated bias.

Interestingly enough, the author goes on to state in another part of his post that when looking at income stats, then we should consider ALL distributors – not just those who are active. So which way is it? Do we pick and choose or do we include ALL participants?

The credibility of DSA’s numbers is backed up by the outside research firms that conduct the studies. A respectable research firm won’t risk their reputation by cooking the numbers – regardless of who pays for the study.

That said, I’ve made no claims on this blog that there are not issues to address. On the contrary, one of the reasons we’ve started this Web site and this blog is to have an open exchange of ideas about the industry regardless of one’s position. Our goal is to improve the direct selling experience for everyone – if that means changing policies or educating companies about what today’s consumer’s want, then everyone would win.

Further, this site encourages people to do their homework regarding direct selling in general and the companies they are considering in particular before signing up – and to begin with realistic expectations regarding the time involved and the income potential. In case I have not been clear, direct selling is not an easy way to get rich quick.

In addition, the site promotes the DSA Code of Ethics – which acts to both prevent issues and solve them. Compliance with the provisions of the Code sets a framework for ethical behavior, but if a seller or consumer encounters a problem, it also provides a structure for relief.

Regarding the studies the author cites, it’s not surprising that one would choose to cite the research of others they agree with – particularly when they already work closely with those individuals, closely enough in fact that they are all advisors for each others’ organizations. The studies the author cites contain limited data. For example, his own study group was admittedly a sample of just 33 tax preparers from three counties in Utah who were asked what they recalled about returns they had completed. Further, they were asked to divulge confidential information and then coaxed further by being told what others had already said. That is simply not an objective way to collect data. The data may have been difficult to collect, but that doesn’t mean you can introduce a bias to extract information or randomly fill in missing information. At best, the data is anecdotal, at worst it’s just outright wrong.

Lastly, Mr. Taylor asked how I can sleep nights. Well, with a full-time job, a husband, and two small children, I don’t sleep as much as I’d like to. However, I do sleep well because I know that direct selling can be a rewarding opportunity for men and women, whether they’re looking to begin a new career or just earn some extra money to pay bills or take a trip. And I also know that those of us at the DSA are working to make the industry even better.

Mr. Taylor is certainly welcome to be part of the conversation and I do hope that we’ll be able to have a useful back and forth free from personal attacks that focuses on the issues at hand. It’s fine if we reasonably disagree on the basis of facts and data. It is not acceptable to degrade the other party.

The other day I read a blog post where someone had once again asserted that 99.9% of direct sellers lose money. It’s an eye-catching line and it’s memorable. It’s a line that’s often repeated by opponents of direct selling as means of discouraging potential sellers. It’s also false.

In fact, more than half of direct sellers report that their net income from direct selling, after taxes and expenses, is positive. In addition, positive net income is reported by nearly half of new direct sellers – those representing their current company for less than a year. The research from our sales force survey also shows the following:

• 89% of direct sellers rate their personal experience in direct selling as excellent, very good, or good;
• 84% of direct sellers say that direct selling meets or exceeds their expectations as a good way to supplement their income or make a little extra money, and;
• 91% of direct sellers say that direct selling meets or exceeds their expectations as a business where the harder they work the more money they can make.

Does this mean that all of these people are making six-figure incomes? Of course not! In fact, most are probably earning very modest amounts – exactly meeting their goals. One of the advantages of direct selling is that you can set your own goals and develop your own schedule to meet those goals. Many people begin direct selling as a way to earn a little extra money in their spare time – they’re not looking for a fulltime job.

I’ve always found this 99.9% myth fascinating because it essentially asserts that nearly 15.2 million people in the U.S. and 60 million people around the world continue as direct sellers despite losing money. Are we to believe that five percent of the U.S. population would continue in a business where they are losing money? Simply put, most people do not lose money in direct selling.

Further, anyone who gets involved with a legitimate direct selling company should not risk financial loss by doing so. The DSA’s Code of Ethics, for example, is designed to protect direct sellers and customers. Inventory buybacks (which include sales aids) and other provisions of the code allow sellers recourse if there’s an issue with the company.

It is my hope that everyone who tries direct selling will begin with reasonable expectations and a clear understanding of the path to their goal – hopefully information found on this site will help with that.
Certainly, direct selling is not a fit for everyone – but no one should risk financial loss by giving it a try. Managing expectations for new independent sellers is critical for success, and is an issue I’m sure we’ll address more than once on this site.

The bottom line is, just as it’s wrong to tell someone considering the direct selling opportunity that they’re guaranteed to succeed, it’s just as wrong to tell them that 99.9% of direct sellers lose money and that they’re guaranteed to fail.

I was suprised today when I came across a January post on bloggingstocks.com characterizing Avon’s corporate restructuring plan, which began back in 2005, as necessary because of a flawed business model – reliance on recruiting, and not enough recruits to be had. It’s an interesting, if somewhat naïve, assertion about a company and business model that are more than 100 years old – having survived decades of economic ups and downs and societal shifts.

It’s particularly interesting given Avon’s positive early 2008 forecast – predicting mid-single digit growth in 2008 despite a questionable U.S. economy, according to this Reuters story. It hardly seems like a company in trouble.

Even more interesting are the post’s assertions about the direct selling model in general.

Point #1: Companies “live and die by how many new representatives they can recruit.”

Nope, that statement misses the point entirely. Of course recruiting is a critical part of the direct selling model, but companies rely on those recruits to sell products, not just to sign up. Recruiting alone doesn’t result in income for sales reps or the company. With low start up costs (usually less than $100, and in some cases, far less than that) money is made in direct selling when products move. Products move when sellers sell product.

Point #2: “While MLM companies like to focus the public’s attention on the selling of products, the reality is that it is through the recruitment of new representatives that these companies grow.” No, the reality is it’s still product sales that matter. If a company has 10 reps that each sell $5000 in products, that’s always going to be better than having 100 reps that sell $100 each. Just adding more representatives doesn’t increase profits – which is why many direct selling companies are focusing on making the “career opportunity” more attractive. By nurturing promising recruits to sell more and, yes, recruit more motivated sellers, sales and profits rise. Any business, direct selling or otherwise, has an interest in cultivating leaders who can be top performers and inspire others to do the same, thereby building the business. Not everyone will rise to the top, but those who do will be the next leaders.

Point #3: “Representative turnover is high, however, in large part due to the fact that the representatives don’t make much money from selling products.” Turnover in direct selling averages about 56%, comparable to turnover in retail, which is about 53%, not really that notable. Yes, there are plenty of people who try direct selling and decide it’s not for them. There are also lots of people who might try a new brand of cereal and decide it’s not for them either. That doesn’t make the cereal bad, and quite frankly the financial risk for either scenario is about the same. But beyond those who just decide not to continue, you have the equivalent of seasonal workers in direct selling (who may sign up and drop out every year like clockwork) and you have people who achieve their modest goals and then see no need to continue, each of whom contribute to the turnover rate, but none of whom is unhappy with their experience.

Point #4: “My hope is that this outdated method of doing business is something that more and more women are avoiding.” Sorry to disappoint, but more and more women are choosing direct selling because it offers a flexible alternative to a 9-to-5 job. There’s minimal upfront cost, low risk (especially given the generous buyback DSA members are required to offer) and ultimate flexibility. When fears of recession are rising, people are looking for additional income sources – and direct selling provides a perfect fit. Combine that with relatively low-cost, consumable products that the average consumer doesn’t abandon in slow economic times, and both recruiting and sales are in a position to increase.

Point #5: “With over 99% of distributors losing money in the MLM schemes, it’s no wonder that recruiting representatives may be harder and harder.” It’s absurd to believe that 15.2 million American direct sellers (and 60 million sellers worldwide) are the mindless followers suggested by this assertion. With $32 billion in sales in 2006, direct selling provides opportunity and success for millions every year. As in any type of business there are people who are not successful. However, there are many more who achieve their goals – both financial and non-financial – and consider their direct selling experience to be a fulfilling one.

Considering all these points reminds me what a solid business model direct selling really is. Companies like Berkshire Hathaway, Hallmark, Reader’s Digest, Jockey, The Body Shop and myriad others operate, or have invested in, direct selling companies – something they wouldn’t be doing if the model were questionable. So, don’t count the Avon lady out quite yet – she’s alive and well.